Stability analysis of rice export markets of India to South Asian countries- markov chain approach

Abstract

Rice is an important food crop of India which plays a dominant role in the country’s economy by meeting the domestic and export demands. It contributes significantly to both agriculture and industry in terms of farm income, employment and export earning. India, despite being the second largest producer of rice in the world, has not exploited its potential to emerge as a major player in the world Rice exports. The present level of exports is not consistent and exhibits high variations in volume and revenue earning. In this paper, the direction of changes have been measured in the export of Rice from India to among SAARC countries to different export markets employed the Markov-Chain model. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation Constituted by Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The study endeavors to measure direction of trade policies.